It’s glaring that Tinubu cannot protect citizens, and he shows neither anger nor remorse. He has to allow people to protect themselves. He withdrew policemen from politicians, yet Minister Wike still moves around in a Rolls Royce with a battalion of policemen. Since Tinubu is a pathetic commander-in-chief, he should outsource security to the people. He must allow ordinary Nigerians to protect themselves. It was probably good law to prohibit citizens from keeping rifles all those years. But times have changed radically.
Poor Nigerians. These days, ordinary people are one wrong journey away from a brutal death. General Rabe is now dead. Who knows what his family went through to recover his remains? May his soul rest in peace.
The lessons from Rabe’s killing are for the living. When he served as military spokesman, he did his best to minimise the security crisis and lionise the military. His job was to portray the military and government in the best possible light. But after soothing the populace, perhaps generals should tell their civilian bosses the truth. The current strategy isn’t working.
All the bad people in Nigeria own rifles. Good people are not allowed to have them. The politicians own the police and army, who protect them at home and on the move. The ordinary Nigerian is a hapless prey. Even retired generals cannot keep rifles in a country where every thug has easy access to one. If General Rabe had possessed a rifle, he might have died a more dignified death. Instead, he was taken like a chicken and slaughtered by rag-tag bandits, while the nation wallowed in utter helplessness.
For over sixteen years, since these insurgencies began, our governments have repeated the same unworkable strategies and served us the same fickle hopes, the same fatuous promises, and the same concocted excuses. The same trite platitudes. It is either “Libya” or “global phenomenon.” Otherwise, it is “We are winning” or “We must live with it because all nations now do.” And sometimes, near elections, the blame is heaped on the political opposition.
But it is not Libya. Because Algeria, Egypt and Morocco are closer to Libya. Are they infested with bandits and jihadists? If arms have poured in from Libya, it’s because the Nigerian state is weak and porous. Jonathan’s wife probably believed it was Shettima, Buhari and Tinubu “sharing blood” to damage her husband’s political fortunes. Now Tinubu, Shettima, Akpabio and Okpebholo probably think it is Atiku, El-Rufai and others. This easy recourse to cheap conspiracy theorising and finger-pointing is partly why nobody has produced serious new ideas to tackle this intractable problem.
Tinubu probably thinks state policing will solve the problem. But the state police project, as currently conceived, might not be better than a proliferation of ill-trained civilian JTFs, which already exist. Though it will provide a needed boots surge, the very idea of state police without a reformed federal police will probably be a disaster. The proper process would have been to reform, reorient and re-equip the federal police first.
It’s glaring that Tinubu cannot protect citizens, and he shows neither anger nor remorse. He has to allow people to protect themselves. He withdrew policemen from politicians, yet Minister Wike still moves around in a Rolls Royce with a battalion of policemen. Since Tinubu is a pathetic commander-in-chief, he should outsource security to the people. He must allow ordinary Nigerians to protect themselves. It was probably good law to prohibit citizens from keeping rifles all those years. But times have changed radically. A desperate situation calls for desperate measures. The government now hires mercenaries to fight bandits. It also allows communities to buy peace from bandits who, it now appears, are permitted to keep rifles. The state is feeble. The law cannot continue to handcuff the law-abiding people it was meant to protect. The original mischief the law intended to curb was the proliferation of military-grade weapons. But the horses have bolted.
Nothing illustrates our total hopelessness better than the story told by Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed. Last year, his nephew and three companions were attacked at night. The bandits came to abduct them. One tried to run and was shot dead. The bandits are diabolically ruthless. His nephew and the two others ended up in captivity in the bush. The bandits knew Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who worked as special adviser to President Tinubu, and seconded to VP Shettima. They also knew Datti Ahmed, Peter Obi’s former running mate. Dr Baba-Ahmed ran to everybody in the Presidency to plead for help. The entire Presidency was involved. Promises were made to the Baba-Ahmed family. Days and weeks rolled by. The bandits, who had demanded a hefty ransom, began to run out of patience. The government dilly-dallied. The family knew it could no longer rely on the government, so they raised the ransom: ₦175 million, brand new motorcycles, and hard drugs.
The captives spent 36 days in the forest. The ransom was delivered in three tranches. At one point, the people handling the delivery missed their way in the bush and met soldiers who showed them the route to the bandits’ camp. The government knew the location of the bandits, yet they got away with the murder, kidnapping and ransom. Tinubu, the commander-in-chief, could not help his own special adviser. Shettima, who had promised to march into the forest, while leading the war against the bandits, did not seize the opportunity to show his courage. If the four men had possessed rifles, the bandits would probably not have approached them.
Tinubu probably thinks state policing will solve the problem. But the state police project, as currently conceived, might not be better than a proliferation of ill-trained civilian JTFs, which already exist. Though it will provide a needed boots surge, the very idea of state police without a reformed federal police will probably be a disaster. The proper process would have been to reform, reorient and re-equip the federal police first. Then, with the federal police as a bearer of ethical standards and a model of professionalism, the state police units would have a supervisory model worthy of duplication. The current federal police has no culture to bequeath to the state police units. If the state police are funded, trained and equipped as wretchedly as the federal police are, they will not be able to fight petty crime, let alone banditry.
Rather than wallow in persecutory delusions and paranoid permutations, Tinubu should adopt a three-pronged strategy.
Every new measure carries risks. A carefully regulated liberalisation of rifle ownership for vetted citizens could lead to isolated abuses or even mass shootings by deranged individuals. Hiring better foreign expertise has its own complications. But without them Mali would have long been overrun. Refusing ransoms may provoke initial retaliatory killings. But ultimately it will disincentivise it. The present situation is already intolerable.
First, the political front. Set politics aside for a moment and pursue genuine national unity. Travel to the affected regions. Sit with the people. Listen sincerely to grievances. Lower tensions. Instead of allowing communities to negotiate humiliating “peace” deals with bandits, while the federal government looks away, show leadership. Lead the negotiations yourself where necessary. At the same time, empower citizens by changing the law to allow vetted, law-abiding individuals and communities to own rifles for self-defence. A people who believe the state is both weak and indifferent will not mobilise for a government that offers them only helplessness.
Second, the military and security front. Re-equip the armed forces with modern technological warfare. In the North-West, where forests are not dense, drones should become the primary tool for surveillance, tracking, and the targeted elimination of bandit camps. While the military is being retooled, reconsider the quality of mercenaries and special operators you employ. You can keep Asari Dokubo and Sunday Igboho. But we need professionals capable of hostage rescue, precise tracking, and the neutralisation of known camps. Currently our troops are too exposed at the bare battle fronts. The president likes to talk about church rats and poisoned holy communion. Every bandit who collects ransom must suffer the fate of a rat that has consumed poisoned communion.
Third, choke the criminal economy. Once citizens are legally empowered to defend themselves and the state has improved its rescue and tracking capacity, outlaw ransom payments — beginning with government officials and institutions. The endless flow of money from private and public purses into bandit coffers is what sustains and expands the kidnapping industry. This will be painful. Some victims may be killed when ransoms are refused. But the alternative — a permanent, expanding ransom economy that funds insurgency and terror — is already destroying the country and will claim far more lives in the long run.
Every new measure carries risks. A carefully regulated liberalisation of rifle ownership for vetted citizens could lead to isolated abuses or even mass shootings by deranged individuals. Hiring better foreign expertise has its own complications. But without them Mali would have long been overrun. Refusing ransoms may provoke initial retaliatory killings. But ultimately it will disincentivise it. The present situation is already intolerable. The horses have bolted. Criminals already possess military-grade weapons. The law that was meant to protect law-abiding people now only handcuffs them while leaving the wicked free.
Mr President, the time for half-measures and recycled excuses has passed. Vet responsible citizens and communities. Allow them to buy and own rifles for their defence. That is where meaningful change must begin.
Ugoji Egbujo writes from Lagos.