- Gov. Ademola Adeleke is seeking re-election under the Accord Party after winning in 2022 on the PDP platform, facing APC’s Bola Oyebanji
- Oyebanji, a former Osun Finance Commissioner and chartered banker, has the backing of President Bola Tinubu and the full APC structure
- A public affairs analyst has identified incumbency appeal, Tinubu’s political stakes, and Adeleke’s pledge to deliver Osun for Tinubu in 2027 as key variables
Legit.ng journalist Adekunle Dada has over 8 years of experience covering metro, government policy, and international issues
The Osun State governorship race is shaping up as a predominantly two-horse contest, with 14 parties listed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) but only a handful fielding candidates with any serious electoral weight.
Public affairs analyst Donald Okwuosa has broken down the race into three principal contenders: incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, and Dr Najeem Salaam of the ADC, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly.
Source: Twitter
During an exclusive chat with Legit.ng, Okwuosa listed the 3 factors that could decide the Adeleke vs Oyebamiji race
Adeleke’s strengths heading into the election
Adeleke, who won in 2022 under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is now contesting re-election on an Accord Party ticket and is banking on grassroots goodwill built during his first term.
He said Adeleke’s administration has delivered road rehabilitation across Osogbo, Ede, Iwo, Ila, and Ilesa, and cleared outstanding salary arrears owed to civil servants, two decisions that earned him considerable goodwill among workers and residents alike.
His informal reputation as the “dancing governor,” combined with the popularity of his nephew, music star Davido, gives him a notable reach among young voters.
Okwuosa argued that Adeleke’s fortunes will hinge on turnout in Osogbo, Ilesa, Iwo, and Ede, the towns that benefited most from his road projects.
Oyebamiji and Tinubu factor
Oyebamiji, a former Osun Commissioner for Finance and Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), brings a technocratic profile and the full weight of the APC national structure behind him.
His campaign is centred on fiscal discipline, salary delivery, and the promise of closer collaboration with the federal government.
Crucially, President Bola Tinubu is understood to have a strong political interest in recapturing Osun State ahead of his own 2027 re-election bid, as consolidating the entire South-West under APC control would significantly strengthen his regional base.
Okwuosa noted that Tinubu “will use his wherewithal to secure victory for the APC in Osun State,” making federal political muscle a factor that cannot be ignored in assessing the outcome.
A pledge that could change the calculus
One development that Okwuosa flagged as potentially significant is Adeleke’s public pledge to deliver 100 per cent of Osun’s votes to Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.
If Tinubu takes that commitment seriously, Okwuosa suggests it could reduce the pressure on the presidency to throw everything behind the APC candidate, effectively giving Adeleke political breathing room to win a second term.
“If Tinubu banks on that promise, it might grant Adeleke a soft landing. In other words, it may allow him a smooth sail to a second tenure.”
With incumbency, federal backing, and a potential back-channel arrangement all in play, the Osun contest is being watched as one of the most consequential governorship races in the South-West ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Source: Twitter
Osun 2026: 8 LGAs that may decide winner
Recall that all three leading candidates in the August 15 Osun governorship poll hail from the same senatorial district, making vote distribution tightly contested.
The Accord Party, APC and ADC camps each claimed they will win all 30 local government areas in the state.
The battleground councils, including Osogbo, Olorunda, Odo Otin and Ilesa East, could ultimately decide who wins the election.
Osun: Peter Obi discloses how winner should emerge
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that NDC presidential candidate Peter Obi issued a public appeal ahead of the Osun governorship election on Thursday, August 13, 2026.
Obi urged INEC, security agencies, political parties, and traditional leaders to act with neutrality and protect the will of Osun voters.
The call drew sharp reactions online, with many Nigerians expressing doubt that a free and fair election is possible under the current APC-led federal government.
Source: Legit.ng