- Incumbent governor Ademola Adeleke is running under the Accord Party after leaving the PDP amid internal crises within the party
- A GSI survey placed Adeleke at roughly 79% support compared to 15% for APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and 6% for ADC’s Najeem Salaam
- Analysts point to road projects, school rehabilitation, and salary payment records as key factors working in Adeleke’s favour
Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke is widely seen as the frontrunner ahead of the August 15, 2026 governorship election, with analysts citing his administration’s infrastructure record, personal popularity, and a divided opposition as the main forces working in his favour.
He is running on the Accord Party ticket after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during a period of internal crisis within the party.
Photo Credit: @AAdeleke_01
Source: Twitter
Track record and incumbency advantage
Adeleke’s administration has pointed to roughly 350 kilometres of roads constructed or rehabilitated, solar street lighting installations, flyovers, and work on long-neglected roads across the state. More than 150 schools and over 200 primary healthcare centres have been rehabilitated under his watch, and the University of Ilesa was established during his tenure.
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On welfare, his government claims to have paid salaries promptly, implemented a higher minimum wage, and cleared significant portions of inherited pension arrears and half-salary backlogs running into tens of billions of naira. These measures have drawn visible support from civil servants, pensioners, artisans, market women, and traditional groups, all of whom represent a large share of the Osun electorate. Analysts note that his accessible, populist style gives him an edge over more technocratic predecessors, particularly among younger voters and those in lower-income brackets.
Personal following and strongholds
Adeleke maintains a strong personal political machine that has survived his departure from the PDP. He is especially dominant in Osun West, particularly in Ede North and Ede South, his hometown area, where his 2022 winning margins were substantial. Endorsements from labour organisations, traditional security outfits, and ethnic associations have reinforced his base, and the withdrawal of at least one opposition candidate from the APM has reduced the field further. His nephew, music star Davido, has publicly backed his campaign, a factor observers say could boost turnout among younger voters.
A survey by GSI placed Adeleke at approximately 79% among respondents, compared to about 15% for the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Oyebamiji and around 6% for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam. Prediction markets have priced him as the favourite, with one major platform giving him roughly a 69% chance of victory.
Osun 2026: Opposition dynamics and caveats
The APC remains the most formidable challenger, backed by federal resources, the Tinubu administration’s network, and the influence of former governor Gboyega Oyetola. The ADC’s Salaam functions as a potential vote-splitter. The PDP has not fielded a candidate.
Despite the positive indicators, the outcome is not guaranteed. APC’s organisational strength, federal government alignment, and possible last-minute shifts in elite support could still tip the balance. Election-day factors, including turnout, security, logistics, and potential legal questions around Adeleke’s party status, remain variables. Adeleke himself has described the election as a referendum on his performance, calling himself a “bulldozer” while urging voters to cast their ballots peacefully and defend their votes.
Peter Obi criticises Fadahunsi’s outburst
Legit.ng earlier reported that Peter Obi spoke out against Senator Francis Fadahunsi over comments he described as inflammatory and threat-laden before the Osun State election
Obi called on Fadahunsi to retract his statements and apologise to the people of Osun State
The NDC presidential candidate urged security agencies to monitor inflammatory rhetoric and protect voters before, during, and after the polls.
Source: Legit.ng