- Retired Professor Lai Olurode argued that Tinubu’s re-election prospects had grown stronger since 2023
- The former INEC commissioner pointed to specific policy decisions and political conditions shaping his prediction
- Olurode also addressed the APC’s recent loss in Osun State, offering a different reading of what the result means
A retired Professor of Sociology and former National Commissioner of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Lai Olurode, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu will win the 2027 presidential election by a wide margin.
Olurode shared his views in a written statement titled “My Arguments for President Tinubu’s Re-election Bid,” in which he outlined several factors he believes will improve Tinubu’s performance relative to his 2023 showing.
Source: Facebook
Why Olurode backs a stronger Tinubu showing
The former INEC commissioner argued that conditions surrounding the president had shifted considerably since 2023.
He pointed out that Tinubu contested that year without the full backing of his party, saying some governors distanced themselves from him and that no federal resources were deployed on his behalf.
“There was no federal might deployed in his favour. Even some state Governors treated him as a political leper and were afraid of publicly identifying with him,” Olurode said.
He also credited the president with showing political courage by retaining the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket despite significant public opposition, and praised the administration’s willingness to take unpopular decisions, particularly the removal of the petrol subsidy.
On security, Olurode said coordinated intelligence operations had weakened banditry across parts of the country.
He also cited infrastructure progress, noting that the administration had nearly completed 6,000 kilometres of roads in under four years, compared with over 9,000 kilometres finished during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure.
He did, however, call on the government to increase spending on healthcare and to reverse a decline in education’s share of the federal budget in both 2025 and 2026.
Reading the Osun result
Olurode directly addressed the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeat in the Osun governorship election, pushing back against interpretations that it reflected voter dissatisfaction with the president. Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party won the election, defeating APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji.
Source: Twitter
Olurode, who said he was present in Osun during the poll, argued that many voters were capable of separating their views on the state government from their support for the president. He drew a parallel with Lagos State during Tinubu’s time as governor between 1999 and 2005, when the state resisted pressure from the then PDP-led federal government under President Olusegun Obasanjo.
“Only naïve political analysts will interpret this as a vote of no confidence in President Tinubu,” he said.
He also noted that the peaceful conduct of the Osun election, despite earlier fears of violence, reflected positively on the president’s commitment to allowing voters’ choices to stand.
Olurode concluded that, taken together, these factors position Tinubu to outperform his 2023 result.
“My personal opinion is that on all these variables alone, President Tinubu is most likely to earn more votes in the 2027 Presidential race than he did in 2023,” he said.
Wike says 2027 presidential election decided
Previously, Legit.ng reported that FCT Minister Nyesom Wike said on Friday, August 21, that the 2027 general elections had effectively been decided, pointing to a wave of political realignment he said was building in favour of President Bola Tinubu.
Wike made the remarks while speaking to journalists, saying the recent moves by politicians across the country were part of a broader reorganisation that would continue to unfold.
Source: Legit.ng