Nigeria’s major opposition parties are in crisis. Can they mount formidable challenge

Nigeria’s two main opposition parties, ADC and NDC, are facing multiple internal crises, calling into question their ability to challenge or even defeat the ruling party, APC, in next year’s general elections.

Although Nigeria currently has 21 registered parties, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) are the two expected to pose formidable challenges to the ruling APC. This is partly because of their presidential candidates: Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC.

Mr Abubakar came second in the last presidential election, while Mr Obi came third. Together, they had more votes than the eventual winner, President Bola Tinubu, in 2023. Though both men were in different parties when they contested in 2023, they are believed to still wield influence over millions of their followers.
To be able to challenge and defeat the APC, each of the two parties would need to be formidable; a major challenge, largely caused by self-inflicted problems, especially their handling of party primaries.

At the heart of the crises facing the opposition parties is their inability to conduct credible primaries in many states as well as lingering court disputes, especially for the ADC.

ADC’s many disputes

The ADC entered 2026 with significant coalition momentum but fractured when key figures, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, exited for the NDC. The platform, anchored by veterans such as Atiku Abubakar, David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, has since faced persistent factional challenges.

Rival claims over the party’s leadership triggered court interventions. INEC temporarily removed Messrs Mark and Aregbesola from its portal following Appeal Court orders earlier in 2026, but the Supreme Court’s intervention subsequently led to their reinstatement. On Monday, a Federal High Court judge ordered INEC to deregister the ADC and three others over claims that they no longer meet the requirement for registeration. The party is expected to appeal Monday’s judgement and may get reprieve at higher courts. However, it still faces several court cases over its registeration, leadership and conventions.

The crises in the party got worse after its presidential primary. Although Atiku emerged as the party’s candidate, Mr Amaechi and another aspirant publicly rejected the outcome, alleging widespread disenfranchisement and irregularities. The ADC on Monday named Mr Amaechi as its vice presidential candidate, a move that may placate the former Rivers governor.

Apart from the dispute generated by its presidenital primary, the ADC also faces crises resulting from its governorship primaries in several states, including Rivers, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Benue and Adamawa. In Rivers, Mr Amaechi’s home state, rival factions laid claim to competing candidates, while appeals remain pending in several other states. Some aggrieved aspirants have threatened litigation or defection. The disputes over the governorship and legislative primaries in many states are so intense that about three weeks after the primaries, the party is yet to release the official list of its candidates.

However, the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said efforts were being made to resolve outstanding appeals before candidates lists are finalised.

“We have time, and we will do the needful once this process is over,” he said.

The unresolved disputes present a significant challenge for the party. Parallel claims and pending appeals could trigger litigation over nominations, while resources that might otherwise be devoted to campaign preparation continue to be spent on internal disputes. Taken together, these issues raise questions about the ADC’s ability to present a unified front to challenge the APC.

NDC: Rapid growth creates new challenges

Registered in February 2026, the NDC quickly absorbed high-profile defectors. Mr Obi emerged unopposed as the presidential candidate, with Mr Kwankwaso joined to the ticket as the running mate. Primaries concluded around late May 2026, but the party has faced multiple complaints of irregularities in many states. There has also been criticisms from sections of the ‘Obidient Movement’, a group that supports Mr Obi, over appointments, and the treatment of its prominent supporters such as activist Aisha Yesufu.

The crisis between the NDC leadership and the Obidient Movement worsened when the party’s founder and national leader, Seriake Dickson, publicly criticised the group, saying the party was doing Mr Obi a favour and should be commended and respected.

Mr Dickson, a former Bayelsa governor, met with Mr Obi on 12 June, after which he announced that they had “amicably resolved all the issues” and urged members to “stop the bickering and name-calling,” and to focus on 2027. Mr Dickson has blamed the Electoral Act’s mandatory direct primaries for many irregularities, while defending the platform as more than a vehicle for big names.

Core challenges and fresh risks

One of the NDC’s biggest challenges is converting the popularity of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements into functional structures across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas. That task has been complicated by efforts to merge different political cultures and by disputes over power-sharing arrangements, particularly in Kano, where disagreements over a proposed 60-40 formula generated tensions among stakeholders.

Another potential flashpoint has emerged in Abia State, where documents reviewed by journalists and accounts from party insiders indicate that the chair of the Primary Election Committee submitted a candidate list directly to INEC on 30 May without routing it through the national leadership. Critics argue that such actions could trigger procedural disputes if conflicting nominations emerge.

The platform is also grappling with reconciliation efforts and demands for loyalty designed to discourage defections after the primaries.

Although NDC leaders project confidence and insist the party is ready for the next phase of the electoral process, these developments highlight lingering gaps and the challenges of building a nationwide political organisation at speed.

An indication that the NDC crises arising from its primaries in many states remains unresolved was a statement by the party’s spokesperson, Osa Director.

Last Tuesday, Mr Director said the party has not “released any official results of its primary elections in any state.” He asked Nigerians to “disregard any such list in circulation.”

When automation meets political chaos

As of Monday, neither the ADC nor the NDC has published its full candidate lists; although the parties still have some time before submitting the lists to INEC.

INEC’s revised timetable is strict: Access codes for the nomination portal become available from 27 June; the deadline for submission of presidential and National Assembly candidates is 11 July, at midnight, with later windows for governorship and state assembly races. Only leadership listed in INEC’s official registry (backed by party records and court judgements) receives the official access credentials.

Although the two opposition parties are expected to meet the INEC deadlines, they will most likely do so without resolving the disputes arising from their primaries. These could mean that each of them would go into the elections with a divided house.

Leadership and access risks

Past derecognitions, such as those experienced by factions within the ADC, and allegations of unauthorised submissions illustrate how leadership disputes can complicate access to the INEC nomination portal. Where rival factions claim legitimacy, any upload could become the subject of immediate legal challenge.

Parallel and disputed lists

State-level grievances and unresolved appeals in both parties present another risk. If competing factions produce rival candidate lists or challenge the outcome of primaries, courts could be asked to determine the validity of nominations, potentially affecting candidates long after submissions have been made.

The grassroots challenge

Beyond portal access, both parties still face the task of building effective polling-unit structures nationwide. Weak agent deployment and organisational gaps in communities could undermine electoral competitiveness, regardless of whether candidate lists are successfully uploaded.

This digitised process has eliminated old manual negotiations; internal discipline and compliance are now non-negotiable. Both parties were notably absent from INEC’s cleared candidate list for the coming 20 June bye-elections, underscoring the real-world consequences of unresolved internal issues.

INEC’s hands-off approach

INEC maintains it does not intervene in the internal party affairs. It acts on official records, party constitutions, and valid court judgements. There are no discretionary extensions; deadlines are statutory. The commission has excluded parties from recent bye-elections over unresolved leadership issues and will process submissions from recognised officers, leaving subsequent disputes to the courts. Monitoring of key party activities remains a prerequisite for full validity under the Electoral Act.

Resolution prospects and broader 2027 implications

Despite the challenges facing both parties, there remains a pathway to resolution before INEC’s nomination deadline. The NDC has already begun reconciliation efforts through high-level engagements between Messrs Obi and Dickson, while the ADC has benefited from recent leadership reinstatements following court interventions. However, both parties must still resolve outstanding appeals, manage aggrieved aspirants, and strengthen internal cohesion before candidate lists are finalised.

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With the nomination portal set to open, both platforms retain a narrow but realistic opportunity to meet the 11 July deadline for presidential and National Assembly candidates. Yet the pressure of time means that delays in resolving disputes could quickly escalate into legal and administrative complications.

Beyond the immediate nomination process, the crises highlight broader challenges confronting Nigeria’s opposition. A fragmented political landscape could split anti-APC votes, while the growing judicialisation of politics means courts, rather than voters or party members, increasingly determine the fate of candidates and electoral contests.

Most fundamentally, both parties continue to exhibit signs of institutional fragility, remaining heavily dependent on a small circle of influential political figures, including Messrs Atiku, Amaechi, Obi and Kwankwaso. The deeper question is whether either platform has developed structures strong enough to survive beyond the influence of its leading personalities.

Constitutional lawyer and political analyst Chima Nnaji warned that unresolved disputes could create legal complications for candidates, noting that courts often intervene when parties fail to comply with either the Electoral Act or their own constitutions.

Similar disputes in Zamfara and Rivers previously led to major electoral victories being overturned, demonstrating how internal party crises can carry consequences far beyond the courtroom.

For both the ADC and NDC, the coming weeks may reveal whether Nigeria’s opposition has developed the institutional capacity required to compete for power in 2027, or whether administrative weaknesses will undermine those ambitions before campaigns fully begin.