- A political forecast by the Political Intelligence Group projects Tinubu winning 20 states if the 2027 presidential election were held today
- Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states while Peter Obi is forecast to take eight states plus the FCT
- The group warned the figures reflect the current political landscape and that alliances, defections and the economy could significantly shift the numbers
Legit.ng journalist Adekunle Dada has over 8 years of experience covering metro, government policy, and international issues
Lagos state – A political research body has placed President Bola Tinubu in the lead position in an early projection of the 2027 presidential election, forecasting that he would win 20 states if the vote were held under current conditions.
The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng projected that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would win nine states, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would secure eight states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Source: Twitter
As reported by Vangurad, the Lagos-based group released the assessment as part of its analysis of Nigeria’s evolving political landscape. The group
PIG was clear that the figures do not amount to a prediction of the final result.
“If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage,” the group said.
“However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027.”
Tinubu’s projected strength
The forecast places Tinubu firmly in control of all six South-West states, reflecting the political infrastructure he built over decades in the region, particularly in Lagos.
Beyond the South-West, the projection also puts Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populous states, in his column, a result that would signal meaningful support outside his traditional base.
PIG said the economy could prove to be the defining variable in the contest.
“If economic conditions improve significantly, it could work in favour of the incumbent. If hardship persists, the opposition will have a powerful campaign issue,” the group noted.
Atiku and Obi’s paths to victory
For Atiku, the group sees his strength concentrated in the North-West and North-East, with Kaduna among the states forecast to fall in his favour.
While his long political career and wide network remain advantages, PIG said he would need to make inroads in the South to be competitive nationally.
“His ability to make significant inroads into the South will be critical to his prospects,” the group said.
Obi’s projected eight states, plus the FCT, largely mirror the political base he built during the 2023 election, when he drew strong support from younger voters and several southern states.
Edo is among those listed in his column. PIG acknowledged that Obi’s challenge lies in expanding that support geographically.
“The question is whether that support can be expanded geographically and translated into sufficient state-by-state victories,” it said.
What could change the picture?
PIG identified political alliances, candidate choices, running mates and possible defections as factors that could reshape the current projections before election day.
Regional identity, religion and ethnicity are also expected to play a role in political calculations, though the group said these would compete with concerns over security, food prices, petrol costs and unemployment.
“Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost,” PIG said.
Source: Facebook
7 things Peter Obi must do to win north
Recall that a public affairs analyst has outlined 7 key areas Peter Obi must address to gain the trust of northern voters ahead of the 2027 elections.
The analyst warned that Obi’s 2023 gains in North-Central and urban areas were not enough, with major gaps remaining in North-West and North-East rural regions.
From security and the Almajiri system to running mate selection and campaign language, the recommendations target specific northern concerns
2027: Fresh prophecy drops on potential Winner
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that a Lagos-based pastor, Kingsley Okonofua, on Sunday, August 30, said he had a vision about the outcome of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
The prophecy also featured Atiku and Obi in separate circumstances.
Pastor Okonofua claimed that Atiku disagreed with the 2027 election.
Source: Legit.ng